منابع مشابه
Uncertainty and Climate Change Policy
Uncertainty is a pervasive feature of climate change analysis. This paper explores the consequences for policymakers. Importantly, uncertainty means that every policy has a range of possible outcomes rather than a single estimate. At a minimum, this requires policymakers to decide how to compare these different outcomes and to determine the likelihood that each outcome occurs. While objective a...
متن کاملUncertainty and Climate Change Policy
layer over the South Pole in the late 1970s went undetected for years. The satellite instrumentation did not fail; rather, the computer programs written to analyze the vast volumes of satellite data were instructed to reject measurements that diverged sharply from expected normal conditions. Amazingly, the rejected values were called to no one’s attention. Noticing outliers in ground-based reco...
متن کاملUncertainty In Climate Change Policy Analysis
CHANGE The MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change is an organization for research, independent policy analysis, and public education in global environmental change. It seeks to provide leadership in understanding scientific, economic, and ecological aspects of this difficult issue, and combining them into policy assessments that serve the needs of ongoing national and inte...
متن کاملQuantifying Uncertainty in Climate Change Analyses
Uncertainty is a feature of any planning study, whether climate change is explicitly included or not. Accounting for and disclosing uncertainty is an established component of good planning practices. In water resources planning this has traditionally included uncertainties associated with natural climate and hydrologic variability, future population and economic conditions, and future technolog...
متن کاملEnsembles and uncertainty in climate change impacts
*Correspondence: Pete Falloon, Earth System and Mitigation Science, Climate Impacts Modelling, Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK e-mail: pete.falloon@ metoffice.gov.uk The increasing use of multi-member climate model ensembles for making future climate impact assessments presents both opportunities for understanding uncertainties, and challenges for interpreting the re...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature
سال: 2000
ISSN: 0028-0836,1476-4687
DOI: 10.1038/35036659